Russia Next Move - Russian and Belarusian troops held joint military exercises on Wednesday as tensions remain high over the threat of an imminent war with Ukraine.
With more than 130,000 Russian troops massed on Ukraine's borders with Russia and Belarus, as world leaders wait for Russian President Vladimir Putin's next move, US and NATO diplomats are negotiating with Russian officials to prevent a ground war on the European continent.
Russia Next Move
Analysts with expertise in Russian politics and national security said at an event at Harvard University on Wednesday that Putin has a lot to gain by entering Ukraine and now is a good time to do so, but that doesn't mean he wants to. The group looked at the delicate, complex situation and offered theories about how things might play out at an event hosted by Paul Kolbe, director of the Intelligence Project at Harvard's Kennedy School's Belfer Center.
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Although Putin's goals and demands are multifaceted and unrealistic, they are not completely illegal, says Alexandra Vakroux, candidate of science. '05, executive director of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and lecturer in the Department of Government at Harvard.
His goals, he said, were to secure Russia's access to the European energy market with the completion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany to protect Russia's tax revenues from hydrocarbon exports, which would in turn help the government to improve Russian living standards. helps to maintain and stop. internal disturbances. American and German officials have warned that the project will not materialize if Russia invades.
In addition, Putin wants NATO to ban Ukraine from joining the defense alliance and to return NATO troops to the west, where they were in 1997; Require the West to respect Russia as a major power equal to the US and China; and to right the wrongs of Russian leaders at the end of the Cold War and ensure his legacy as a heroic figure in Russian history before he leaves office.
Even if NATO does not agree to withdraw its forces, the proximity of NATO forces to Russia's western and southern borders is a "legitimate security concern" for Russia, Vakroux said.
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So why act now? The Russian military has recently modernized and is much stronger, while the Ukrainian military, which was weak and poorly trained when Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014, has also grown and improved significantly. With NATO advisers and equipment moving into Ukraine, Russia may see the window closing in its favor and will want to strike when it can. Putin also believes that Europe is not united on what to do and that President Biden is politically weak and distracted by domestic politics, he said.
David E. Sanger (below) says David E. Sanger says Putin has nothing to lose if he continues to build forces through February. "The question is, how long can he stay there?" Moderators with Sanger were Paul Kolbe (from top), Kevin Ryan and Alexandra Vacroux.
Indeed, the focus of the Biden administration was China, not Russia, which angered Putin. But since recognizing Ukraine's escalation as a potential national security threat in December, Biden has taken an aggressive stance toward Russia, demanding that Putin make his intentions known or back down, said David E. Sanger '82, White House correspondent and national security adviser. safety. For The New York Times and HKS Associate Professor.
While it's too early to say whether the strategy will lead to Russia backing down, Sanger said Putin's unusually subdued tone at a news conference Tuesday indicated he was wary of the move, and said that this could be one of the factors that seriously affects him. decision on further military action.
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At that meeting, Putin took a less strident tone when he complained about the build-up of Western defense forces in the region as deliberate provocations to force Russia into conflict with Ukraine. With Chinese President Xi Jinping scheduled to meet Putin in Beijing on Friday after the Olympics begin, China appears to be signaling renewed support for Russia in the face of new Western sanctions.
Other theories, Sanger said, are that Putin is not looking for a ramp to save face, but is waiting for the Olympics to end in late February to avoid embarrassing China and ensure that the ground in Ukraine freezes completely so the Russians can move safely. heavy armament and full training.
Another theory is that Russia's military buildup is to take advantage of NATO and the US's strong defense preferences, and that Putin does not want to fight a long and bloody ground war in Ukraine.
"Putin's only real goal here is to destabilize [pro-Western Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky's government and replace it with a puppet government, or at least a friendly one," Sanger said, citing pro-Russian leaders in Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. "It's not going to restore the old Soviet Union, but boy, it would be a step to start putting the old team back together," he said.
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What will happen next, of course, is not yet clear. The panel agreed that tensions will remain high and dangerous in the coming weeks and that Putin's talks with the West will do little to turn things around.
Because NATO will never comply with Putin's demands, Brigadier General Kevin Ryan (ret.), former deputy director of Army Strategy, Plans and Policy at the Pentagon and now senior research fellow at the Intelligence Project, the leader can control the flow of NATO aid to Ukraine, except by military force or with 'li. Putin's goals can be achieved without Ukraine's large-scale influence, he added.
“It will continue to grow until February and will not lose anything. "All he's done is gain leverage," Sanger said. "The question is, how long can he stay there?"
Sanger speculates that Putin may take deniable cyber and military actions first and see how long it takes before launching a full-scale conventional ground war.
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"The big question is: Will this very aggressive [U.S.] strike keep troops in place or will it slowly move them home? Can Putin do that and still call it a victory?" "And we don't know the answer to that yet," Sanger said.
Next National & World Affairs historic gift invests in pandemic-weary teachers, dean says National & World Affairs historic gift invests in pandemic-weary teachers, dean says “I hope this gift brings us back to the important reality of how I hope. critical teachers and how much they give to our students, our families and our communities," said Dean Bridget Long. Photo by Stephanie Mitchell/Harvard Staff. Neither Russia nor Ukraine will take decisive military action in Ukraine this year, Britain's military chief, General Sir Jim Hockenhull, said in a rare interview that he was closely watching the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons.
On February 23 of this year, Gene Hockenhull worked late. He cycled home at midnight and fell asleep around 1 am.
He got a call an hour later to say there were signs of strange activity on the Ukrainian border, and he got back on his bike and back to work.
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A few minutes later, and still early in the morning, he briefed the British Prime Minister and the Secretary of Defense on the start of Europe's largest armed conflict since World War II.
As the Chief of Defense Intelligence for the past four years, Gene Hockenhull has operated in the shadows, running an organization that deals with highly classified and classified information. The war in Ukraine made his work and work even more important.
According to him, he was convinced that Russia would launch an invasion last November. At the time, he thought, "This is going to happen," he recalled.
A week before the invasion, he made the highly unusual decision to publish a map on Twitter predicting Russia's possible invasion plans. According to him, it was not an easy decision, but he was convinced of the need to get the information out to the public.
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He believes this has helped them to stop them from carrying out false flag operations aimed at portraying the Ukrainians or the West as the initiators of the conflict.
Rarely has so much classified intelligence been made public. Defense Intelligence has since published daily updates throughout the war.
Intelligence is not a science - predictions are made on a scale of probabilities and there are a number of things that have puzzled British Defense Intelligence.
Such are the failures of the Russian army, which has "poor" command, control and logistical support, he says. It also suffered from political interference from the strategic to the tactical level, he adds.
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There is a lack of trust between Russia's political and military classes - and General Hockenhull says he is surprised Moscow is facing all these problems at once.
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